May 24, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Good morning. This week we return refreshed and uplifted after our first vacation since December, 2019 and it truly feels like life is returning to normal.

COVID-19 numbers continue to improve across the US with very few exceptions. For the fifth time in the past nine weeks, US average daily cases have decreased, this week by 38% to 25,318 (from 34,939 the previous two weeks).

In El Paso the past two weeks have brought substantial reductions in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

El Paso Data

Average Daily New Cases: 62 (84 one week ago and 67 two weeks ago)

Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 85 (111 one week ago and 131 two weeks ago)—(6% of Total Beds / 15% of Available Beds)

Average Daily ICU Patients: 30 (37 one week ago and 40 two weeks ago)—(13% of Total Beds / 39% of Available Beds)

Known Active Cases: 1,217 (1,509 one week and 1,831 two weeks ago)

Weekly Mortality

El Paso: 10 (7 last week)

Texas: 349 (226 last week)

US: 3,459 (4,069 last week)

Global: 75,056 (85,291 last week)

At this time, we continue to advise shelter-at-home until you and your contacts are vaccinated

This week the average number of hospitalized patients in El Paso decreased 31% (15% decrease last week). Average ICU patients decreased 23% (19% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved 15 out of the past 17 weeks. Daily cases have decreased 12 out of the past 16 weeks (with a 26% decrease this week).

Our current risk of COVID-19 infection and spread remains high with an estimated 134,000 who have neither had COVID-19 nor been vaccinated. With the authorization of the Pfizer vaccine for children, there may be additional room for improvement over the next few weeks. As a public good (and duty), please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Full immunity does not develop until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

The United States (and El Paso in particular) continue to excel on the vaccination front. Children, who make up nearly 30% of the population, can now join the ranks of the vaccinated. The Pfizer vaccine is now available for children 12 to 15 years old and has shown 100% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths in this age group. There have been no major adverse reactions or deaths due to the vaccine in children. The ongoing Moderna study with children 6 months to 12 years old is said to be nearing completion and may become available in the next few weeks. Pfizer is also studying this age group with possible authorization slated this fall.

This week worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations reached 1.74 billion doses (1.51 billion last week). US vaccinations stand at 288 million (274 million last week). The US is currently 8th best per capita and 2nd best in the total number of vaccinations given. China has now administered 547 million doses. About 131 million or 40% of Americans are fully vaccinated (37% last week).

Since nearly 30% of the US population are children under age 16, authorization of the Moderna vaccine for this age group will be a major step towards herd immunity. If this can roll out fast enough, there is still a chance the US could eradicate COVID-19.

The US remains second in total vaccinations.

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. As of today 456,904 (441,220 last week) have received at least one dose and 358,737 (333,008 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 43% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 347,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 705,000 or 84% (infections + fully immunized—78% last week). Approximately 134,000 El Paso residents remain at risk (not vaccinated or infected). With a substantial portion of these being children, authorization of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines should bring further improvement.

If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all persons age 12 and older are eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective. Use of the Janssen vaccine has been cleared by the FDA, including for premenopausal women. The six widely publicized cases of rare blood clots among 7 million vaccine recipients turns out to be near the incidence of this disorder in the general population.

Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

Vaccination Links:

Text or call myWELLNESS® at (915) 845-5700

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

Albertsons

Walmart

CVS

Walgreens

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients

El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide

myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915

Wishing you good health,

CG Escandon, MD

Douglas Payne, MD

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 5/24/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For May 24 — 2,604 total deaths = 347,000 total cases

• 59% or 493,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of May 24th

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)