March 22, 2021

COVID-19 Update

Good morning and welcome to Spring! This week we want to take a moment to discuss what life looks like post-vaccine. After losing a year of gathering with family and friends as well as travel, what now?

As most know, being vaccinated means being nearly impervious to COVID-19. It also means you are 60 to 90% less likely to catch and transmit the virus. And, although many have done this from the start, being vaccinated allows us and requires us to shift our focus from protecting ourselves to protecting those around us. Until the people you care about have been vaccinated (or had COVID) we have a duty to protect them. It helps to think of the people in your life like the branches of a tree. As the branches of your tree become immune, you can safely interact with them. In turn, the people in your tree each have their own tree and so on.

When it comes to travel, once vaccinated, there is little personal danger with flying, staying in hotels or eating in restaurants. But there is risk, to others and those in their trees. The problem is, when you interact with strangers there is no way of knowing who is being put at risk. From a public health standpoint, the best solution is to wait for herd immunity and this is rapidly approaching in the US. But, until then, how should we proceed if we want to be at our best, if we want to be part of the solution rather than the problem?

It is a difficult dilemma to be sure but one that is temporary. Until we reach herd immunity the best choice is to continue to protect those around you by minimizing public outings. When you do go out, it remains necessary to mask and social distance. Being outdoors is much safer than indoors still.

So, when will we get back to normal? Estimates range from May to September, 2021 in the US but later in the rest of the world.

There is talk of “Vaccination Passports” and, in countries that are slower to vaccinate, this will likely be required. The current frontrunner is the IATA Travel Pass which is being tested by several airlines overseas.

Until we reach herd immunity even if vaccinated, we recommend delaying travel if possible. If you do travel, please do so with caution. Mask and wear eye protection in public while indoors.

Hang in there a just a little longer.

Douglas Payne MD

CG Escandon MD

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 3/22/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For March 21 — 2,325 total deaths = 310,000 total cases

• 59% or 530,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of March 21st

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)