July 12, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Greetings and hope you are having a wonderful summer. With COVID-19 in full retreat in many parts of the world, England, one of the most affected nations on the planet, hosted both the Wimbledon and Euro 2020 finals yesterday. Stadiums were packed with vaccinated fans including more than 60,000 at Wembley, the English national stadium. Although there are concerning variants emerging such as Delta, Pfizer is already working on a booster specifically for this and it seems clear those willing to be vaccinated will have protection available. However, currently available vaccines remain extremely effective against Delta and booster vaccinations are not necessary or recommended. Locally, it appears the virus is churning slowly through the unvaccinated and previously uninfected at a steady rate.

El Paso Data

Average Daily New Cases: 22 (18 one week ago and 17 two weeks ago)

Currently Hospitalized Patients: 48 (39 one week ago and 45 two weeks ago)

Current ICU Patients: 14 (15 one week ago and 15 two weeks ago)

Known Active Cases: 420 (343 one week and 294 two weeks ago)

Weekly Mortality

El Paso: 15 (14 last week)

Texas: 141 (136 last week)

US: 1,456 (1,398 last week)

Global: 16,257 (18,368 last week)

At this time, we continue to advise extreme caution until you and your contacts are vaccinated

Nationally, for 10 out of the past 15 weeks, US average daily cases had decreased. However, there was a 60% increase this week felt to be due to localized surges related to the Delta variant. US average daily cases stand at 19,032 (compared with 11,419 over the previous 14 days). Similarly daily cases in El Paso increased 62% to 43 per day but remain low (5 per day last week). Locally, daily cases have decreased 16 out of the past 23 weeks.

This past week El Paso hospitalizations remained nearly unchanged, with 48 inpatients today versus 45 last Monday. Similarly, current ICU patients stand at 14 compared with 15 last week. Overall hospitalizations have improved 19 out of the past 24 weeks with a slight increase over the past 3 weeks.

Our current risk of COVID-19 infection has improved dramatically but remains high for those unvaccinated. There are an estimated 23,000 who have neither had COVID-19 nor been vaccinated. Since the eligible age of vaccination has been moved from 16 to 12 years, there are currently more than 227,000 people 12 and older who are not fully vaccinated and 153,000 who are only partially vaccinated.

As a public good (and duty), please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Full immunity does not develop until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

The ongoing global vaccination effort remained brisk this week. More than 40% of the world has now received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Still no news on vaccinating children under age 12. Rumors continue to suggest this will not be until fall. Cases of myocarditis in children have now been linked to both the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. However, it is important to understand that the chances of catching COVID-19 and the virus causing myocarditis is far higher for children than any risk associated with vaccination. The American Academy of Pediatrics has fully endorsed vaccinating children so far.

This week worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations reached 3.4 billion doses. US vaccinations stand at 334 million. About 159 million or 48.4% of Americans are fully vaccinated. However, only 1% of people in low income countries have received at least one dose.

Worldwide -
3.4 Billion Doses with 12.1% Fully Vaccinated

7.8 Billion Population

US -
334 Million Doses with 48.4% Fully Vaccinated

328 Million Population

While wealthy countries are rapidly improving, the poor may not be vaccinated until 2023. However, dangerous variants are likely to emerge from under vaccinated regions and richer countries must work towards global immunity, out of self interest if nothing else.

Vaccination vs Income

The world continues to ignore the poor

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. This week an additional 8,514 in El Paso received their first dose (7,833 last week) and 8,931 their second (13,612 last week). As of today 534,561 (526,047 last week) have received at least one dose and 460,693 (451,762 last week) have received both. (Our population 12 and older is 686,863). This means 50.6% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 356,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 816,000 or 97% (infections + fully immunized). Approximately 23,000 El Paso residents are still high risk (not vaccinated or infected) and over 228,000 eligible people have not been fully vaccinated (age 12 and older).

If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all people age 12 and older are eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective.

Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

Vaccination Links:

Text or call myWELLNESS® at (915) 845-5700

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients